Wednesday, September 9, 2009

All predictions are same?

NYTimes: Out of Favour - The Decline of SocialismImage by blprnt_van via Flickr

All predictions are same?

Two years back every one on the street was bullish, economy was booming, lot of investment coming, commodity prices going up and every one who did not own property was getting poorer by the day, then all of a sudden every guy across the world started knowing at least one English word i.e. "Sub- prime", what hit the world economy about two years back still baffles a lot of people, so much so that some sceptics have started questioning if world at large should abandon capitalism and go back to socialism or something of like that. Also all predictions were clear "Markets will correct further". That's when all the liquidity propelled the markets to almost pre-correction levels.

Now when I read all the intelligent people who comment about the market it seems markets are headed for another correction, only problem is that when all predictions are similar something has to change, after all market prediction is and should not be a monotonous job. I am sure markets will surprise us and keep investing and predicting markets an interesting game. Cheers.
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Thursday, September 3, 2009

What happens to the emerging markets when dollar starts strengthening?

The components of the US money supply, express...Image via Wikipedia

What happens to the emerging markets when dollar starts strengthening?

A lot of money will go out of the EM because the strengthening dollar will impact your returns in those countries and of course investors would want to make returns in USD then in emerging markets.

now if you ask me i don't think that the dollar will appreciate from here on in a hurry as the Fed would have to continue with quantitative easing measures but then eventually after may be a year or two the easing will be reversed and the tightening will start, that's when i worry what's gonna happen to emerging markets and that will be interesting to see.
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